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Across the Middle East and North Africa region, a growing number of expatriates are choosing to return to their countries of origin, bringing with them financial capital, remittances and entrepreneurial ambition. This reverse flow of talent is gradually reshaping local economies, reinforcing national development strategies.
In 2023, remittances to MENA countries totaled $55 billion, evidence of the immense role that expatriates continue to play. However, what is emerging today goes beyond financial transfers: returning expats are becoming active economic actors at home, investing in businesses, launching startups and contributing to key sectors such as technology, healthcare and education. Their return marks a critical shift for the region, signaling that the future of MENA’s growth may increasingly rely on the circulation of skills and knowledge, not just capital.
The diasporas of MENA countries are increasingly driving investments and supporting local economic development models, positioning themselves as a key social and economic stabilizer amid the growing challenges facing the region. Governments have become acutely aware of the role their communities abroad play in sustaining their national economies. In Lebanon, for instance, remittances from the diaspora have helped prevent a complete collapse of the state in the face of hyperinflation and the currency’s downfall.
In Morocco, authorities are undertaking a broad revision of the mechanisms designed to encourage investment from Moroccans abroad. This follows King Mohammed’s speech on last year’s Green March anniversary, in which he stressed the limited contribution of Moroccans residing abroad, who account for only 10 percent of total national private investment.
The future of MENA’s growth may increasingly rely on the circulation of skills and knowledge, not just capital
Zaid M. Belbagi
Over the past two decades, King Mohammed has repeatedly called on the country’s political and administrative forces to better integrate the diaspora into Morocco’s political and economic life. These efforts can be symbolized by initiatives such as Operation Marhaba, which facilitates the return of Moroccans living abroad and supports their reintegration. Such initiatives are now bearing fruit, helping transform the Moroccan diaspora into a genuine strategic force.
With 5.4 million expatriates worldwide, the Moroccan diaspora contributes 7.7 percent of the Kingdom’s gross domestic product, amounting to more than $11 billion in 2024. This was up 2.1 percent compared to 2023 and accounted for about 15 percent of national private investment.
In Lebanon, the diaspora stands out as one of the largest and most influential in the region due to its wide geographical presence across all five continents. Beyond this remarkable global dispersion, the Lebanese case is exceptional in that its diaspora, estimated at between 8 million and 14 million people worldwide, outnumbers the country’s current population of about 5 million. This striking contrast highlights just how crucial the diaspora is for Lebanon’s development and its economic prospects.
As in Morocco, the Lebanese diaspora represents the main source of external currency inflows. In fact, in Lebanon’s case, remittances even exceed foreign direct investment and official development assistance, reaching $5.8 billion in 2024. This is equivalent to 17.7 percent of GDP.
In a country grappling with a fragile trade balance, driven by a heavy dependence on oil imports, diaspora remittances covered 55 percent of Lebanon’s trade deficit in 2024. However, beyond the officially recorded transfers, significant sums are sent through informal channels. Taken together, the volume of money sent home by the diaspora is immense.
Regionally, Morocco and Lebanon rank second and third, respectively, for remittance flows. It is Egypt that receives the most from its expatriates. The Egyptian diaspora, estimated at 10 million and concentrated mainly in Gulf countries, the UK and the US, contributed $32 billion in 2024. Remittances are a cornerstone of the Egyptian economy, representing 6 percent to 7 percent of GDP.
Beyond their strong macroeconomic importance, diaspora remittances play a prominent role in poverty reduction
Zaid M. Belbagi
Beyond their strong macroeconomic importance, diaspora remittances play a prominent role in poverty reduction. In Morocco, transfers from expatriates, traditionally the second-largest source of receipts in the country’s balance of payments, support a large number of families, particularly in rural areas, and improve access to education and healthcare. In Lebanon, remittances similarly provide crucial relief for households whose purchasing power was devastated by the 2019 crisis and the sharp depreciation of the Lebanese pound, which pushed more than a third of the population below the poverty line.
Diasporas are thus among the strongest sources of funding for MENA economies, in some cases even surpassing total foreign direct investment, as seen in Lebanon. At the same time, expatriates often represent a vital market for the tourism sector. In Morocco, for example, they accounted for 49 percent of the 17.4 million tourist arrivals in 2024. Beyond seasonal returns during the summer, a growing “back to Morocco” trend is emerging. It is driven by the diaspora’s strong social and cultural attachment to their homeland and reinforced by increasingly hostile sociopolitical climates, marked by racism and Islamophobia in parts of the West.
As such, in Morocco, where the business ecosystem has expanded significantly in recent years, the strong return of expatriates emphasizes a new north-to-south dynamic. It reflects both the enduring attachment of diasporas to their homeland and the fact that some Arab countries are increasingly viewed as offering better opportunities through a more robust business climate and economic advantages.
Currently, among the 33 million Arabs living outside their countries of origin, 44 percent remain within the MENA region itself, mostly in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. This shows that migration from the Arab world is not only directed toward Europe or North America.
The return-to-origin trend among MENA diasporas represents an important opportunity. To harness its full potential, governments must develop new regulatory frameworks and adopt strong, pro-productivity policies. By doing so, they can maximize the economic benefits of expatriates who return with advanced education, expertise and skills. This is particularly crucial in the face of mounting youth emigration and the persistent challenge of brain drain. In turn, such policies would help to stimulate productive investments that strengthen national economies.
- Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the Gulf Cooperation Council. X: @Moulay_Zaid